Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
